Sunday, July 16, 2006

Siniora, Tightrope Walker

It’s been a slow day here, punctuated by odd salvos of rocket fire in the distance. Some louder than others, succeeding in keeping the people on Hamra on edge. The rhythm of normal life has been totally disrupted.

After waking to a surprise phone call from a good friend, I’ve spent the day in my hotel, waiting for a call from the British Embassy. Evacuation information is thin on the ground. CNN reports that a US evacuation advisory team has landed in Beirut, and that some US nationals have been evacuated (for example, those with serious medical conditions). Things could begin to move in the next 48 hours.

I received a phone call from Salam, brother of my dissertation supervisor, Zahera. He offered to get me to Syria if necessary. It’s an amazing offer, but at this stage I will not even consider accepting it – the road to Syria is extremely dangerous, and I don’t wish to expose Salam to any danger on my behalf.

This morning, eight civilians were killed in Haifa by Hizbullah rockets. Israel responded by hitting more targets in Lebanon, predominantly south Lebanon and the Dahiyeh in Beirut. The tit-for-tat strikes show no sign of abating, and only serve to escalate the crisis further.

Israel has advised Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora to mobilise the Lebanese Army, in order to forcibly disarm Hizbullah in the south of Lebanon. Easier said than done. Hizbullah has popular support, particularly in the south of Lebanon, and the Lebanese Army is ill-resourced to commit to such operations against the effective Hizbullah militia.

Siniora is in a very tough position. If the army is despatched to deal with Hizbullah militia, he will effectively target the political wing of Hizbullah – and by extension that party’s constituents, who are overwhelmingly Shi’ite. The Shi’ites of southern Lebanon have endured the most torment from Israel in recent history, and state military operations against the resistance will not be greeted kindly by the Shi’ite population.

Yet if Siniora does not exert at least some control over Hizbullah, it could be a sign to other sectarian communities (such as Lebanon’s Maronite Christians) that the government has given carte-blanche for Hizbullah to engage Israel unilaterally. This is a disastrous notion for those ranged against the Party of God, and will undermine their confidence in the government.

Such differences need to be negotiated with care and precision by Siniora. Any mistake could derail the Lebanese national dialogue and re-open the country’s sectarian divisions. The civil war in Lebanon only ended 16 years ago, and now the government faces a test of its mettle to prevent internal strife of that magnitude arising again.

It is at this precise point that Israel must cease its punitive strikes against Lebanese infrastructure. Hitting power stations, airports and roads only heaps more pressure on Siniora – pressure he surely does not need right now. He needs space and international support.

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